Baker Mayfield

The start of a new NFL season brings hope for most franchises. Shifting rosters, new coaching staffs, returning players, and parity can lead to unexpected breakthroughs and surprises that can change the league’s landscape, if only for a season. One of the things that history has taught us is that front-runners will stumble and underdogs will break through. A closer look at the outlook for the 2026 NFL season shows that eight teams favored to win their respective divisions will fall short of that goal. Let’s look at those 8 teams that are favored to win their divisions but won’t. Which strong NFL teams are not favored to win their division this season? Buffalo BillsJan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; A detailed view of the Buffalo Bills helmet before the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images Despite finishing the 2025 NFL season behind the Patriots for second place in the AFC East, the Bills are once again the favorites to win the division in 2026. Why wouldn’t they? They boast one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Josh Allen. His ability to control a game with his arm and extend drives with his feet means that Buffalo is never really out of a game, and this season, the Bills have improved their passing attack with the addition of D.J. Moore.  Buffalo also made moves off the field, firing long-time head coach Sean McDermott for his repeated failure to succeed in the regular season, only to fall short in the playoffs. Promoted from offensive coordinator with the endorsement of Allen, new head coach Joe Brady brings a certain stability to the organization that an outside hire wouldn’t. That’s what an optimist would say.  A realist sees a much different picture. Perhaps the real problem wasn’t with McDermott. Sure, he was the head coach, so the blame will fall on him, but Joe Brady was the offensive coordinator last season and plans to retain that responsibility as head coach. The head coach may have changed, but has the offense?  Not really, especially with the same quarterback, who just might not be a big game player; he wouldn’t be the first, and he won’t be the last. The Bills will still be a winning team, but New England has also improved and is a real threat to the Bills’ AFC East supremacy. Tampa Bay BuccaneersNov 4, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; A general view of Tampa Bay Buccaneers helmets against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images It’s tough to say if the Buccaneers are the favorites to win the NFC South in 2026. Actually, it’s tough to say if any team in the division is the favorite to win it. One thing’s for sure, it’s really tough to call any NFL team in the division a winner, as none of them had a winning record in 2025. In fact, 2020 was the last year in which two teams in the division finished a season with double-digit win totals.  So, since we wanted one team from each division, and the Buccaneers have the most established quarterback in the division, we’ll take them as the favorite. Baker Mayfield has a lot to play for this season. Entering the final year of his contract, the 31-year-old will certainly be motivated to play well so he can earn a new, big-money deal.  Regardless of their weaknesses, the Bucs are predicted to win 8-9 games in 2026, which should be enough for the top spot in the division. However, if they can get to 8-9 wins, the Panthers, Falcons, or Saints can too. Football is a physical sport, and players get hurt.  A team forecasted to win 8-9 games doesn’t have a lot of margins for error and probably can’t afford to absorb significant injuries to key players. Additionally, their three division rivals aren’t that far from having successful seasons themselves. The Falcons and the Panthers, who won the division last year, tied the Bucs with 8 wins in 2025, so it really is anyone’s crown. It just won’t be Tampa. Baltimore RavensJan 11, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; A view of Baltimore Ravens players’ helmets on a heated bench against the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC wild card game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images In 2025, the Steelers won the AFC North, and many felt that wasn’t due to their dominance. On the contrary, it was due to two of their division rivals having down seasons, and one of them being the Cleveland Browns. Heading into 2026, the Ravens are the clear frontrunners for the division this year.  Lamar Jackson is easily the best dual-threat quarterback in the NFL today, if not all-time. In addition to his strong, accurate passing ability, he possesses speed and elusiveness that’s rarely seen by a quarterback. Not only can he turn broken plays into massive gains, but Jackson’s playmaking ability forces opposing teams to place a defender on him every play.  Yet the Ravens’ offense also includes running back Derrick Henry, who, despite being 32, continues to put up impressive numbers. Add a solid receiving group that includes Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and tight end Mark Andrews, and it’s easy to see why the Ravens are favored to win the AFC North, yet they won’t. This will be the first time in 18 years that John Harbaugh will not be patrolling the sidelines in Baltimore, as he was fired after last season.  While a veteran team can overcome a new head coach, there are bound to be bumps in the road. Unfortunately, a new head coach isn’t their only issue. The primary obstacle facing Baltimore lies 423 miles away, “as the crow flies,” in Cincinnati. The Bengals overhauled their defense, they contain a high-powered offense, and are the only NFC North team without a new head coach. The Ravens in ‘26? Nevermore. Seattle SeahawksSeattle Seahawks helmet (Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images) The defending champions, the Seahawks, have to be the favorites to win the NFC West this season. In 2025, they steamrolled the NFC on their way to a 14-3 season before their victory over the Patriots in Super Bowl LX. The case for Seattle to repeat as division champs in 2026 is an open-and-shut one.  They still maintain one of the league’s most formidable defenses, and quarterback Sam Darnold seems to have finally found his game in the Pacific Northwest. In 2025, he proved himself to be a highly efficient signal-caller capable of minimizing mistakes and maximizing the elite talent of players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That was then, this is now; 2026 marks a new season. Can Darnold do it again? Especially since the offense took a big hit when they lost running back Kenneth Walker III to the Chiefs in free agency. It’s not just the QB, though. Can the team do it again? It is hard to repeat as champions in the NFL, whether it’s a division or the Super Bowl. Every team will be gunning for them this year as they all want to take down the reigning champs, especially their division rivals, who have both improved their teams.  The Rams have added defensive end Myles Garrett to an already lethal defense, and the 49ers have given QB Brock Purdy a new weapon in WR Mike Evans. They will both be coming after Seattle, and having that target on your back can wear a team down, which is why the Seahawks won’t repeat as division champs. Kansas City ChiefsKansas City Chiefs helmet (Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images) The Chiefs suffered a massive fall from grace in 2025, finishing the season with a dismal 6-11 record, good enough for third place in the AFC West. Unfortunately for Kansas City, once quarterback Patrick Mahomes was lost for the season with a knee injury, the Chiefs’ season was essentially done. In spite of last year’s issues, the Chiefs are once again favored to win the division in 2026.  Mahomes is on schedule to start the season under center, and his presence alone is enough to push Kansas City back into favored status. But it’s more than that: they will have a healthy Rashee Rice at wide receiver for a full season and have imported running back Kenneth Walker III, who was named Super Bowl MVP last season with the Seahawks. Head coach Andy Reid should have a field day planning for this offense.  But it’s not all sunshine and daisies in K.C., as they have their issues, too. Mahomes suffered a severe knee injury. He might be ready to start the season, but will he be effective? What about star tight end Travis Swift… er, Kelce. He will turn 37 this season and has already begun showing the effects of age and the wear and tear of living the glamorous life as a Swiftie.  The Chiefs also struggled in close contests, posting a 1-9 record in one-score games. After 13 seasons in charge, could Andy Reid have worn out his welcome? Is a new voice needed in the locker room? In all likelihood, the Chiefs are probably closer to a retool than their championship dynasty.  Philadelphia EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles helmet (Photo via Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images) Behind quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Saquon Barkley, and a receiving corps that included A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert, the Eagles cruised to an NFC East title last year. Riding their high-powered offense and a top-flight defense, Philadelphia became the first NFL team in the NFC East to repeat as division champs in 21 years.  The chances of an Eagles three-peat are slim, if they exist at all. There are just too many factors standing in the way of that happening. Internally, the offense took a major hit when they traded A.J. Brown to New England. The loss of the passing game’s primary weapon will have ripple effects through the offense, especially if DeVonta Smith is unable to carry the load as the top receiving option.  Removing Kevin Patullo as offensive coordinator and replacing him with Sean Mannion creates another layer of instability, as Mannion is the team’s seventh since 2019. Changing the coordinator so frequently prevents the team from establishing a long-term rhythm. Of course, if true, the rumored reports that Jalen Hurts is not receptive to coaching and the execution of certain offenses don’t help matters. Externally, the rest of the NFC East is getting better, and while the Giants and Commanders aren’t a threat yet, Dallas is one. With Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, the Cowboys could potentially have one of the best offenses in the game. Not only will Dallas challenge the Eagles’ NFC East supremacy, but they will topple it in 2026. Houston TexansAug 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; A Houston Texans helmet sits on the sidelines during the 4th quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-USA TODAY Sports The Texans enter the 2026 season as the favorites to win the AFC South for several key factors. First is the continued growth of C.J. Stroud, who, with another year under his belt, is expected to return to his dominant form and lead an offense that has made numerous reinforcements.  A rebuilt offensive line should provide the protection that Stroud needs to be successful, as well as create holes for running back David Montgomery. Defensively, they’re elite, possibly one of the best in the NFL. Led by Will Anderson Jr., the unit creates game-changing pressure, giving the Texans a huge advantage over opponents and a remarkably high ceiling.  The Texans didn’t rest this offseason; they looked to address their holes by upgrading the offensive line and adding weapons to improve play action and red-zone efficiency. There’s a lot to like in Houston, but there’s a lot to like in places like Jacksonville and Indianapolis as well. The Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, and over the last couple of seasons, he has begun to blossom into an elite talent, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 38 total touchdowns in 2025.  They also have a top defense that forced 30 turnovers last year. The Colts have key pieces on offense, such as Alec Pierce, and a defensive unit that is capable of elite play. Led by DeForest Buckner, they can disrupt opponents’ passing and rushing attacks. While the odds of a Colts division title are a little less, the chances of the Jaguars taking the AFC South are much greater, possibly greater than those of the favored Texans. Detroit LionsHelmet of Detroit Lions place kicker Jake Bates (not in the photo) before the NFC divisional round between Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders] at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday, Jan. 18, 2025. The 2026 season has the potential to be a good year for the Detroit Lions. Despite missing out on the playoffs in 2025, they are favored to reclaim the top spot in the NFC North. They have an elite offense led by quarterback Jared Goff, and explosive playmakers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.  The defense, which suffered numerous injuries in 2025, is bound to be healthier this year. Finally, there’s their schedule advantage. They will be facing one of the easiest strength-of-schedule in the league, and held a 4-2 intra-divisional record last year, which is why analysts have given Detroit a 38% percent chance to win the division this year.  Additionally, although they finished 2025 in last place, their 9 wins placed them two off the division lead, showing how close this division is in the NFL. This is precisely why the Lions will not win the NFC North this year. The Bears, Vikings, and Packers are all capable of taking the division title. Minnesota has elite offensive playmakers, like Justin Jefferson, and a disruptive defense.  Over in Chicago, or wherever the Bears are playing, they are the defending division champs, have a potent offense led by Caleb Williams, and a defense that can generate game-changing takeaways and critical stops. Under the continued development of Jordan Love and a stout defense led by Micah Parsons, the Packers can’t be counted out either. The NFC North is an unpredictable division, and while analysts might give them a 38% chance of winning the division, we give them a 0% chance.