With the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery set, we now have an inkling of which prospects will get drafted in the first round. As with other drafts, not all lottery picks will make their mark in the league.
For every lottery player who developed into a superstar like Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Anthony Edwards, there are the Marvin Bagleys, Jett Howards, and James Wisemans – guys selected in the lottery who underperformed at the NBA level. Adjusting to the pace of an NBA game and getting drafted by an incompetent franchise are usually the main culprits for why many highly touted prospects falter in the pros.
Here are the five prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft who will become stars and five who will likely end up as potential busts.
Which 2025 NBA Draft prospects will end up as stars or busts?
Star: Cooper Flagg
Let’s get Cooper Flagg’s name out of the way by telling everybody this early that he will not just be a star, he’ll be a superstar in the NBA. For years now, the 18-year-old Duke Phenom has been projected to become the number one overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
His combination of size, shooting touch, and defensive instincts is unmatched compared to his peers. The Mavericks will inevitably select Flagg in June to replace Luka Doncic’s contributions after the latter was traded to the Lakers in February.
By looking at how Flagg played for Duke last season, one can see that he’s like a prime Scottie Pippen equipped with Andre Kirilenko’s instincts on the defensive end. He’s a superior shooter to those two All-Star guys, though, especially in the midrange and the three.
The past few months have been a roller coaster ride for Mavs fans. That’s one hell of a ride from losing Luka to presumably getting Flagg. Another superstar for the Mavs. That’s as good as it gets for any NBA franchise.
Bust: Khaman Maluach
With how Cooper Flagg, Tyrese Proctor, and Kon Knueppel dominated the ball with Duke last season, it’s easy to forget that they have a 7-foot-2 behemoth down below in Khaman Maluach. The South Sudanese-born big man had a decent year with the Blue Devils, but did not become a beast on the boards as everybody expected.
As we all know by now, big men take a little bit more time to develop in the pros, and Maluach will likely fall in that narrative in his first few seasons in the league. The pace is different, and you can expect that he’ll be hunted in pick-and-roll actions by smaller players.
If Maluach can’t adjust to the speed of the game, there’s real concern that he’d end up like the disappointing Mo Bamba, 2018’s sixth overall pick.
Star: Derik Queen
While most big men do take time to develop, Derik Queen may be an exception. Queen was a stud in Maryland last season and showed potential that he could become an all-star once he gets into the NBA.
He may not be uber-athletic like most of his peers, but he certainly knows how to use his wide body to create opportunities for himself and his teammates. He has soft hands for a man of his size and can shoot anywhere from the floor. Queen is a good passer, too, and many pundits expect him to become better at it in the pros.
The consensus right now is that Queen will likely be selected anywhere from the five to ten range in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Bust: Jeremiah Fears
Even though Fears played exceptionally well for the Oklahoma Sooners, there are some real concerns about whether it was all a fluke or real. For starters, nobody expected Fears to perform like a five-star recruit in his lone season in college, especially when he was only rated around the top 50 to 60 prospect coming out of high school.
Add to the fact that he was thrust into the spotlight for the Sooners after much of their backcourt rotation transferred schools in 2024. With the ball in his hands, he had no choice but to deliver. While he had a relatively good year in scoring the rock, there were some red flags along the way, like his scoreless outing against Texas A&M and his subpar .28% shooting from beyond the arc.
Where he lands in the 2025 NBA Draft will indicate whether he’ll thrive or not as a pro. Can he play off the ball? Can he be an effective cutter or a spot-up shooter? There are more questions than answers at this point for the 18-year-old.
Star: Dylan Harper
Whether it will be the Spurs, the Sixers, or some other team, you can bet that Dylan Harper will be a star wherever he lands. He’s not an explosive athlete, but the kid knows how to score at will.
At 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, Harper has an NBA-ready body and an NBA-ready game. He knows how to create mismatches off pick and rolls, when to shoot or when to attack, and when to draw fouls. He is not flashy with the ball but very effective whenever he has it in his hands.
Harper’s basketball IQ is beyond that of his peers in this class. Fans and media alike are comparing his skill set to either James Harden or Joe Johnson. That screams superstardom, right?
Bust: VJ Edgecombe
Labeling Edgecombe as a potential bust might be a tough pill for his fans to swallow. First of all, the Baylor product is an explosive athlete on the court. Think of him like Victor Oladipo. But can he get to that level?
Edgecombe has a high-arching shot and is exceptional off the bounce. The biggest concern right now is shot creation. We had a very limited sample from him in that area during his lone season in college. There were times when he showed us that he could create offense off the bounce, and there were also times when he looked lost with the ball in his hands.
If the 6-foot-5 beanpole out of the Bahamas lands on a team that will require him to create his own shots, that’s going to be a problem for him because he’s not quite there yet in terms of his overall skill set. Edgecombe needs a point guard to facilitate and distribute the ball on offense for him to be effective.
Star: Egor Demin
A 6-foot-9 point guard, the Russian-born Egor Demin is a polarizing prospect to dissect in the 2025 NBA Draft. He has star potential, and there are times when he also looks like a potential bust. But considering his international experience and the year he had with BYU, Demin’s potential leans heavily on stardom rather than the makings of a bust.
During his time in Europe, many fans labeled him as the next Luka Doncic. While that’s a lofty comparison, he certainly has the game to back it up. At his height, he can easily pass the ball over smaller guards in the NBA. Playmaking was never an issue in his game. He could pass the rock with ease.
Demin might be a bit turnover-prone, but most pundits expect him to clean up that area of his game at the NBA level. Right now, he’s like a taller Josh Giddey with much more pronounced athleticism on the court.
Bust: Jase Richardson
Where Jase Richardson will land in the draft is all over the place right now. Some 2025 NBA mock drafts have him inside the top 10, while others have him in the 11 to 20 range. That speaks volumes about how scouts truly feel about his game. Officially measured at just 6 feet, the Michigan product mostly played shooting guard in college.
While he thrived in that role, it’s important to note that he isn’t comfortable playing the point guard spot on a basketball court. If a certain team envisions him playing either guard position, that will pose some significant problems regarding Richardson’s on-ball capabilities.
At the NBA level, Richardson will be tasked with guarding guys bigger than him. He also needs to get his shots off against taller guys who are constantly in his face. It’s safe to say that Jase did not inherit the total athleticism package of his two-time slam dunk champion father, Jason Richardson. His small stature will pose some growing pains at the NBA level, especially if he cannot develop any playmaking skills.
Star: Kon Knueppel
Knueppel is arguably Duke’s best player behind Cooper Flagg. At 6-foot-7 and 217 pounds, he knows how to use his body well to draw fouls and work around the basket. He is also a lights-out shooter from deep, posting a .40% clip in his lone season in college.
The Wisconsin native has a high basketball IQ, which he utilizes well on the court. He knows when to cut, pass the ball, search for mismatches, and shoot it. Most pundits may view him as the ultimate role player, but Knueppel is more than that.
A lot of guys thrived at the NBA level even with limited athleticism, and Knueppel might be on that path as well.
Bust: Ace Bailey
Ace Bailey is the ultimate boom-or-bust prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft. He can either become the next Tracy McGrady or the next Jonathan Isaac. There are no in betweens. While he was a stud during his lone season at Rutgers, a ton of Bailey’s shot selection was questionable at best.
Despite having the athleticism of either Ausar or Amen Thompson, Bailey often settles for jump shots rather than attacking the basket to draw some fouls or some and-one plays. His offensive game is raw, and it’s anybody’s guess on how it translates to the professional level.
He’s not much of a passer either, averaging just 1.3 assists per game in college. Should a team pin their hopes on Bailey to get them out of mediocrity, expect that there will be some real frustrations along the way.